The Young Voters Came Through This Time

Every election, the Democratic handwringing over those flighty younguns commands the attention of the media, at least for several news cycles. Will they really, really show up and vote? In the past, the political hopes of many a candidate have been dashed on the promise of a high youth turnout on election day.

Well, the numbers for the 2008 election have been crunched thoroughly now and the verdict is in: About 23 million young people, an increase of 3.4 million over 2004, accounted for almost two-thirds of the overall 5.4 million increase in voter turnout. Their participation increased at a rate greater than older generations. As a result, young voters increased their overall share of the vote from 17 percent in 2004 to 18 percent in 2008.

In contrast to previous recent presidential elections, a majority of young people voted in 2008 (53%), and in the competitive battleground states, youth turnout was even higher (59%). This was significantly above the 1996 (37%), 2000 (41%), and 2004 (48%) levels.

Their unified support for Barack Obama combined with their high turnout made the Millennial Generation the decisive force in his victory. Young voters accounted for about seven million of Obama's almost nine million national popular vote margin over John McCain. Had young people not voted, Obama would have led McCain by only about 1.5 percentage points instead of seven. Republican Internet guru Patrick Ruffini pointed out that without Millennials, Obama would not have won the combined 73 electoral votes of Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and North Carolina. While he may still have won in 2008 without young voters, Obama's margin and his political mandate would have been far narrower.

Will this put an end to the old stereotype that young people don't turn out to vote? Probably not.  The traditional media likes to play the same old tapes (8-tracks?) over and over again every election cycle; it's so much easier than actually... what do you call it?.... oh yeah, reporting.